Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Random Reflections – 5                                                                                       27.02.2017

Bad Loans and Bad Bank

     The economic survey presented by Dr. Aravind Subramaniam, Chief Economic Advisor talked about creation of a Public Sector Asset Rehabilitation Agency (PARA).  The new Deputy Governor of RBI who is a known votary of Privatisation, who has taken leave from Newyork University for 3 years and joined RBI has stated in an interview that there should be two bad banks one in the Private Sector and one in the Public Sector.  The latest report on NPA Published in Business Standard states that India’s bad Loan Problem is getting worse. The gross non performing assets have reached Rs.6.2 Lakh Crores at the end of Q3 FY17, an increase of 56% over the previous years.  The Asset Reconstruction Companies have not made any significant headway. The name Bad Bank itself is bad.  It is nothing but a new avatar of ARCs.

        Where are the Bad Loans? In  a written reply to the Parliament, the Minister of State for Finance has stated that there were 661 NPA accounts about 100 crores amounting to Rs.3.7 lakh crores from Public sector Banks as on March 31, 2016.  He also stated that NPA is high in infra structure, road, textiles, steel etc.  In April 2016, RBI has stated that the top 10 Corporate NPAs amount to RS 56,000 Crores. Supreme Court has obtained list of defaulters owing more than 500 crores from RBI.  But RBI has requested not to publish the list saying that it would dent the fiduciary relationship between RBI and the Banks and between the Banks and customers.  A report of RBI as on March 2015 shows that 42.4% of the total advances of scheduled commercial banks are given to Private Corporates.  The same report shows that there are 11000 accounts with a credit limit above Rs.100 crores which constitutes 36.9% of the total credit limit.  Credit limit above 25 crores to 31965 borrowers constitute 15.9%.  Credit limit above 10 crores and below 25 crores to 41826 borrowers constitute 6.7% of the credit limit.  That means 59.5% of the credits are above Rs.10 crores to just 84791 borrowers.  On the contrary, only 0.5% is given to 20.7 million borrowers with credit limit less than Rs.20,000 and only 7.7% is less than Rs.2 lakhs limit given to 8,12,67,021 borrowers. The NPA in this segment is meagre.  So let us understand for whom this bad bank is and for whom the right offs are helping.  In a country with 127 crores population to catch less than 1 lakh borrowers we don’t have any power, because the Govt not only has the will but also supports these defaulters.  Bad Banks  and ARCs  elsewhere have helped the defaulters to sell of their loans at a cheaper rate and also buy back the assets at cheaper rate using another name.  If the Govt and RBI are really serious let them implement the recommendations of the Parliamentary standing committee submitted on February 24, 2016. The summary of the recommendations are

1.      Accountability of nominee Directors of RBI / Ministry on the Bank Boards as well as the CMDs / MDs of banks should also be annexedin the matter.
2.      The decisions taken to sanction loans in violation of norms/guidelines should also be enquired into, responsibility fixed, adequate penal action taken.
3.      Till such time a project is commissioned as per approved schedule, banks should not hasten to categorise such a project as NPA.
4.      The extent and the quality of the equity that the promoters are capable of infusing into a project, therefore, also needs to be factored in by a lender bank.
5.      The Government should make the necessary structural changes including revival of Development Financial Institutions (DFI) for long-term finance, especially for Infrastructure projects, which will go a long way in nipping the problem of NPAs in the bud.
6.      Urge the Government for allowing Infrastructure Finance Companies (IFCs) to purchase infrastructure projects turning into NPAs and keep them as Standard Assets, as this step would not only provide the much needed relief from stressed portfolio but also create an enabling environment for funding the infrastructure sector facing resource crunch. Besides, the IFCs should also be allowed to participate in equity. The Banks should have equity component built in the loan agreement itself. The Committee desire that the RBI should explore the possibility of developing a mechanism wherein there would be separate norms for NPA classification for infrastructure and non-infrastructure loans.
7.      Each bank must focus on their respective top 30 stressed Accounts involving those categorized as "willful defaulters" and make their names public. Such a step will act as a deterrent for other promoters against wilful defaults.
8.       It will also enable banks to withstand pressure and interference from various quarters in dealing with the promoters for recoveries or sanctioning further loans. On the other hand, promoters will also be cautious before applying for loans. The Committee are of the view that when companies, which have undergone restructuring process for their stressed loans, should be made public, there cannot be any justification for maintaining secrecy on this count.
9.      RBI to monitor and follow it up with the banks and financial institutions on a regular basis till concrete outcomes materialise. Such a pro-active action by RBI will also enable it to review the guidelines, whenever required and plug loopholes, if any. As the Committee would not like the RBI to be a passive regulator, when major lapses occur in banks, it would be in the fitness of things if RBI exercises its regulatory powers vis- a-vis banks to take punitive action in cases of default and to enforce their guidelines. The Committee also believe that RBI as a regulator should have its regulatory role well delineated and thus not have its Director in the Board(s) of the Banks as part of their management, as conflict of interest may lead to avoidable laxity.
10.  Forensic audit of such loans (restructured loans becoming bad debts) as well as willful defaults be immediately undertaken.
11.  . Appropriate system should be evolved and guidelines be prepared to take charge of assets and management of such failed CDR companies, while initiating action against such management. Further, disposal of the assets should be given priority.
12.  Considering the non-efficacy of the CDR mechanism, the Committee believes that the RBI's scheme for Strategic Debt Restructuring (SDR), which empowers banks to take control of defaulting entity and its assets by converting loan into equity, may armor the banks with an additional tool to cope with their NPAs. A change in management must be made mandatory in such cases involving willful default or sheer inability on the part of the promoters, where they have diverted funds and no redemption is possible. The Committee would however like to put a caveat here that the SDR mechanism should be used sparingly so that it does not become a smoke screen for large scale write-offs. It is necessary that even after SDR, the penal consequences for a wilful defaulter should continue to operate.
13.  Bulk of bad loans may be linked to firms that are struck with over-capacity and weak demand and are, therefore, simply unable to service their debt. The prolonged slowdown in the economy has eroded the market for distressed assets so much so that even Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs) have found it hard to off load them. The Committee would, however, still suggest that the RBI should consider such a dispensation that allows banks to absorb their write-off losses in a staggered manner, can help them restore their balance sheets to their normal health, while ridding the banking sector of its toxicity.
14.  Time-bound disposal of cases thus becomes the need of the hour. A distinction now needs to be drawn between "wilful defaulters" and other defaulters in the procedures prescribed under the relevant Acts and accordingly, "willfully defaulting" promoters must be dealt with sternly and promptly. Banks must be fully empowered to recover their dues promptly after necessary orders are passed by the Tribunal. The Committee would strongly recommend a thorough overhaul of the legal regime governing debt recovery, which may include stringent provisions to safeguard public money. Furthermore, there is a need for authentic and large Credit data base including posting the Credit Status of "wilful defaulters" in public domain.
For full report refer www.prsindia.org. or  savepublicsector.com   

Out of these recommendations, not even one has been implemented so far.  Is the Govt not even accountable to the Parliament? Whom are we trying to cheat talking about bad banks in a bad taste. Who will provide capital for bad banks and it is going to help whom? It is high time we wake up the Govt and talk about good governance and not bad banks.


Franco


The economy anarchy of capitalist society as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of the evil.. Private Capital tends to be concentrated in few hands..(resulting in) an oligarchy of private capital, the enormous power of which cannot be effectively checked even by a democratically organised political society. – Albert Einstein. 

Monday, February 20, 2017

Random Reflections – 3                                                                             16.02.2017


Banks Board Bureau – Indra Dhanush and ESOP


Business Standard, Editorial of 15.02.2017 titled, ‘Chasing rainbows- Banks Board Bureau is conspicuous by its inaction’, Economic Times article on the same day, ‘ESOPs for star performers at State-run Banks in the Works’ and the Finance Ministry’s news that they will soon announce Indra Dhanush – 2, made me to think.

BBB, Indradhanush and ESOPs are part of the recommendations of P.J. Nayak Committee and endorsed by Gyan Sangam – 1 held at Pune on Jan 2&3, 2015.

The role of BBB are, “Appointment of Board of Directors, advise Govt on appointments, advise Govt on desired structure at Board Level, help Banks to develop a robust leadership succession plan, to build a data bank, to advise Govt on a code of conduct and ethics for Managerial persons in PSBs, to advise Govt on evolving suitable training and development programmes for management personnel and help banks in terms of developing business strategies and capital raising plan etc”. All these by part time shows the intention – Rubber stamp of Govt.

The constitution of the BBB to replace Appointments Committee has not improved the situation in anyway.  BBB is only an interim body and will be collapsed into a Banking Investment Company as per Gyan Sangam.  The Govt share will be transferred to the Company.  It is proposed to reduce the share holding of GOI in Public Sector Banks to 40% in stages. It has not acted where it has to but interferes in areas like wage revision which is not its mandate.

It’s almost an year.  The BBB has only recommended 9 names for Executive Directors.  Many Boards of Banks have vacancies.  Some Banks do not have Managing Directors.  There are more than 40 vacancies of Officer / Employee directors in Public Sector Banks including SBI and though BBB has no role, its told that the recommendations have been sent to the Chairman, Bank Boards Bureau.  
The Chairman, Shri Vinod Rai, retired from Civil Service in 2008 and was appointed as CAG for 5 years.  He did a good job.  IDFC website still has his name as Director.  He is also now incharge of BCCI and a member of a Committee on Public Sector appointed by Kerala Govt.  All the members are also part timers.  Ms. Rupa Kudwa, Member, BBB is also Director in Infosys and Omadayar Group.  Two directors are secretaries in DFS and Dept of Public affairs who do not have time.  One more is RBI Deputy Governor and the RBI is under cloud.  Mr. Anil Khandelwal’s report was rejected by all Trade Unions in the Banking Industry like that of Nayak Committee, and he is also a member of BBB.  Mr. H.M. Sinor was Joint MD of ICICI and he will advice Public Sector Banks as member of BBB.  What a strange coalition?

So there is no way BBB can do justice.  It’s constitution itself is ultra virus.  To avoid Parliament it was constituted.  So it has to be dismantled and further plans for BIC has to be stopped.  Banks require autonomy and not over interference.

The ESOP scheme is being pushed by Gyan Sangam and now by Mr. Vinod Rai.  He has not discussed anything with the Associations, who are stakeholders inspite of our request.  Now this part time, retired officers are being advised by reports of Multinational Consultants like Mckinsey and Boston Consultancy Group, who are guided by IMF & WB.  This is not going to strengthen the Public Sector Banks. 

The objectives announced in Indra Dhanush have not been achieved. They were capitalisation, De stressing PSBs, strengthening risk control measures and NPA disclosures, empowering of Banks, A frame work for accountability and Governance Reforms.  There is no progress in reducing NPA or improving Governance or other objectives.  The new Chairmen and MDs announced by Indradhanush including some from Private Sector have not been able to make any turnaround.

So what is needed for Banking Industry is not ESOP for the so called star performers or variable pay.  Appreciation by this methods have not helped any industry.  Appreciation can be in the form of certificates, promotions, awards etc.

What the Public Sector Banks need are

*  Functional Autonomy
* Appointment of Directors and Chairman nominated by institutions like IIM, IIT, and an   
   Independent RBI. 
*  No interference but policy directions for the country.
More staff to provide better services
*  Attractive salary taking into account the risk and responsibility
*  Focus on rural and semi urban network and credit
*Adequate power to recover loans.(Implementation of recommendations of Parliament Standing Committee on NPA)

Public Sector Banks have proven strength.  Please let them function. They have saved this country during demonetisation and during all crisis periods in addition to regular contribution to the economic growth.

Public Sector Banks are like Temples.  Let us respect them.

Franco

Friday, February 17, 2017

Random Reflections – 4 17.02.2017

Banking Sector Reforms?

The meaning of reform is improvement / reorganisation / restructuring / modification /
transformation / alteration / change / development as per dictionary. Reform should
bring positive changes, reform should help the larger majority. But in the name of reform
what are we doing? Between 1969 and 1991 the Public Sector Banks fulfilled the objectives
of Nationalisation. The number of rural branches increased, Credit–Deposit Ratio
improved. Small credits and agriculture credit increased and the economy as a whole
improved. From 8262 branches the network increased to 62000 out of which 58% in rural
areas. CD ratio reached 65% with rural branches reaching upto 97% in CD Ratio. The so
called BIMARU states had big expansion of Bank branches. From 0.2%, the agriculture
credit reached 18%, credit to SSI Units increased from 6.9% to 13.5%. Between 1972 and
1983 there were 21.2 million additional Bank Loan A/cs of which 93.1% were with credit
limit less than Rs.10000. In 1983 RBI Reporting raised the limit for small borrowal
accounts to Rs.25000. Between 1983 and 1992 another 36.0 million additional loan
accounts were added of which 95% were less than Rs.25000. Reaching 62.5 million small
borrowers was a historic achievement. Then came the reforms in 1991. Narasimham
Committee 1 recommended removal of social objectives. The recommendations were
influenced by IMF & WB. It argued that directed credit (Priority Sector) should be removed
slowly. Expansion of branches should depend on “need, business potential and financial
viability”, it recommended. It also wanted larger role to Private and Foreign Banks. This
was followed by Narasimham Committee- 2, Raghuram Rajan Committee, Anwarul Hoda
Committee, Khandelwal Committee and then P.J. Nayak Committee. The common
recommendations were
                                     Bringdown stake in Public Sector Banks to 33% or 40%
                                     Merger and Acquisition in the name of consolidation
                                     Liberal entry to Foreign Banks
                                     Increase in FDI share in Private banks to 74%
                                     Proportionate voting right to share holders
                                     Provide new banking licences including to corproates
                                     Phase out priority lending
                                     Outsource Bank jobs
                                     Promote Asset Reconstruction Companies
                                     Reduce staff strength sharply
                                     Performance based pay structure

Step by step, from Congress to NDA to UPA to UPA II to NDA Governments have speeded up
these process except during the period of UPA I.

The big industries turned corporates who had been running banks before Nationalisation,
want to own them again. New Corporates like Reliance want to have a major share. The
experience of Mexico, Brazil, Greece and many other countries have shown how the
Banking Sector has been taken over by Private Corporates and Foreign Banks over a period
of time. This has lead to the Banks shifting to only one motto. “Profit”. The deposits are of
the common man and major credit portfolio goes to the benefits of the rich leading to
increase in income inequality. The 2008 crisis of US Banks showed the weakness of Private
Banks, many of them became bankrupt and the rest had to be saved by the Govt.
Our Constitution promises equal opportunity for all. But in the name of reforms the
majority of the weaker sections, marginalised sections and socially deprived sections are
getting out of the Public Sector Banks and becoming dependent on money lenders
including MFIs and NBFCs.

The latest Data released by RBI on 10th March 2016 as on March 2015 reveals the status.
The outstanding small credit less than Rs.25000 is just 0.5% of total credit. Above
Rs.25000 and below Rs.2 lakhs is 7.7%. Above Rs.2 lakhs to Rs.5 lakhs is 7.7%. Above Rs.5
lakhs up to Rs.10 lakhs is 4.3%. Even if we take borrowers upto a credit limit of Rs.10 lakhs
as small borrowers the percentage out of the total is 20.8% only. If we take upto Rs.2 lakhs
it is only 8.2%. Interestingly outstanding credit from 1 Cr to 2.5 Cr constitutes 6.5%, Rs.2.5
Cr to Rs.10 Cr constitute 15.4% (31995 borrowers) and above Rs.10 crores constitutes
31.5% (11000 borrowers)

The NPA of the big borrowers is increasing rapidly and the Govt is not willing to declare
wilful defaulters as criminals. Mallaya is a creation of reforms. There are many more.
Agriculture is in crisis; unemployment is increasing and small entrepreneurs are failing due
to non availability of cheap credit.

The rural branches have come down to 38%. Inspite of the failures of Private Banks
licences are being given including for small Banks and Payment Banks. To help payment
Banks, cashless economy is being forced. The main beneficiaries are Reliance, Airtel and
Paytm. How long they will survive is not known.

In the name of reforms there is an attempt to end bipartite settlements for wage revision at
Industry Level and another attempt to divide and rule by bringing in Performance based
variable pay. When the branches do not have identical level playing field, how can you
measure and compare performance?

These are the result of Banking Sector Reforms. Are we going the Greece way?
Before mass appraisal of people, the Government has to change direction and reorient
Banking towards the larger majority and fulfil social objectives also. Former Chief Justice of
India Shri. Markandey Katju has said that there is going to be a revolution. Can’t we have a
bloodless revolution once again through policy changes?

Franco
ngcfranco@gmail.com

Before you do anything, stop and recall the face of poorest most helpless destitute person
you have seen and ask yourself, is that what I am about to do going to help him.”
                                                                                                                                  – Mahatma Gandhi